The impact of presidential elections on the housing market tends to be more about temporary uncertainty rather than long-term disruption. Historical trends show that while consumer confidence may dip slightly during election years, causing a small, temporary slowdown in home sales, the housing market usually rebounds quickly once the election is over. This “wait-and-see” approach is common among buyers and sellers as they anticipate potential changes in economic policies.
For instance, data reveals that after 9 of the last 11 elections, home sales increased in the following year, showing the resilience of the market. Similarly, home prices are generally unaffected by elections, continuing on their pre-existing trends. The one exception was in 2008-2009, during the financial crisis, but even then, the broader economic conditions had a greater impact than the election itself.
Mortgage rates also follow predictable patterns during election years. According to data from Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have often decreased from July to November in many election cycles, potentially providing favorable conditions for buyers later in the year.
Ultimately, while there may be some hesitation during the election period, the market is generally resilient, and the long-term impact of presidential elections on housing remains minimal
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